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Shaping the Future:




manuscript by
Hugh Bibbs


4.

The Global Supply Crisis


There are two principal reasons cited for the global supply crisis which is occurring in many localities now, and is projected to increase.

The first of these reasons is the intractability of our exhaustible mineral economy. There are three interest groups whose behavior as stakeholders in the industrial economies mitigate against a decreasing demand on natural resources. We have:

a) Producers, with a vested interest in the status quo due to the income derived from a continuance of production, and who generally aim to increase production.

b) Consumers, whose standard of living depends upon their ability to consume goods and innovative devices which enhance quality of life. Certainly, the modest consumer goals of the poorest nationalities, for clean water, electrical utilities, and increased food production, cannot be disputed.

c) The State, which must satisfy its political constituency or face rebellion in one form or another (protest or insurrection).

The second reason for the global supply crisis has to do with the biophysical linits to minerals development. As mineral concentrations in mines decline, increased energy costs and the disruption of larger areas result. At the same time, demand for and production of finished output is up. For example, copper output between 1800 and 1991 increased fifty seven thousand percent (570x) while the ore grade dropped from concentrations of eight percent down to just one percent. This meant that 4,560 times as much volume of ore had to be extracted and processed in 1991 than in 1800.

The scale of this increase in excavations worldwide for extractions of minerals of all kinds has meant the in ground reserves are being mapped and extracted from the last frontiers on the globe. There will be no more out there to discover by the end of the next century.

So far, the resolution of this crisis of supply and demand has been to postpone it by relocating extraction further afield, mining the marginal areas, shifting further northwards into the biologically fragile arctic regions, and absolutely devastating the biologically rich tropical regions.

While there are still debates going on amongst the scientists collecting and analyzing data in specific fields of interest all over the world, geographers have begun to project some very basic global trajectories which cannot be disputed. The global supply crisis is one of them.




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